Let’s Buy Nokia

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Apr 252012
 

As NOK stock continues its slide, the vultures are gleefully circling.  I don’t have to link you in to pundits predicting the company’s demise– you probably had to step over some doomsaying articles just to get here.

Nokia was always good to me, even before I worked there.  I made decent money off of it after the 2000 tech bust and in fact had I hung on a bit longer could have really made out.  Nokia used to follow fairly predictable patterns so you knew you could safely buy under $14 USD and you should probably sell at over $30 (not counting bizarre stock bubbles).

So today I glance at my IRA and see NOK sitting pretty at an attractive entry point of $3.75.  Of course that’s not my entry point– even some aggressive dollar cost-averaging has me at around $7.50.  That’s not counting the high-priced bundle that came out of my 401K when Nokia decided it could somehow carry on with a less-than-marginal global logistics team (I disagree, but I’ve already hashed that over.  And over).

I want to make money on that heap of discounted shares, but even more, I want to keep Nokia out of the hands of the serious vultures.

Even at its present high cash burn rate, Nokia squats on assets that must have its competitors sitting up to take notice.  Imagine Samsung swooping in.  Or how about Apple?  Their global market share is still relatively tiny– nabbing Nokia’s logistics bits, at the very least, should help its penetration plans.

Heck, I could go on and on, even without touching on the obvious (i.e., rumored Microsoft panic button purchase threshold).  Better yet, I’ll cut to the plan.

Let’s all buy Nokia.

Look folks, it’s cheap.  And Graham Neray over at The Next Web has me thinking we’ve all been way too hard on the shrinking Finnish giant.  He’s loading up.  Why should we be left out?

So let’s take advantage of this once-in-a-digital-lifetime opportunity.  Join Graham and I in taking ownership of Nokia.  Keep the vultures out of it.  And once you have those shares, make your voice heard at every opportunity.  Don’t let me be the only one.

  • Mike

    I would happily buy Nokia stock if they fired Stephen Elop as CEO and ditched Windows. If they don’t remove him as CEO Nokia will start leaving markets this year, he has lost all credibility.

    • http://texrat.net Randall

      That’s a “damned if you do, damned if you don’t” scenario. If the board fires Elop *now*, then there are confidence risks there, too.

      For now, just grit your teeth, hold your nose and BUY. ;)

      • Mike

        I believe that Nokia would regain trust and confidence if they fired Stephen Elop as CEO.

        Too much risk for me to buy Nokia stock looking at how Nokia is performing under Elop as CEO.

        I can’t support Nokia with what is going on, the Nokia brand is being burned down.

        I’m a long time Nokia follower and customer, I’ve only had Nokia devices and I used to recommend Nokia to family and friends. I’m shaking my head in despair. I’m truly sad. :-(

        The sad thing is after all these years, I feel that Nokia doesn’t want me as a customer anymore. :-(

        Mike

        • http://texrat.net Randall

          Firing Elop *right now* would scare the crap out of anyone with a serious vested interest in Nokia, especially institutional investors. The stock would plummet immediately afterward.

          There are factors that transcend any individual’s personal feelings toward a CEO, and one of them is public perception of stability. Firing Elop at this point would send the signal that Nokia screwed up with the Windows Phone strategy, and regardless of how you or I may feel about that decision, Nokia has too much riding on it now and thus so do major investors. They don’t need their faith shaken any further.

          • Mike

            Nokia has failed with the Windows Phone strategy. When it was announced in February 11, 2011 the stock went down 30 % and is still going down. Investors have voted with their money. Customers have voted with their wallets.

            Thus, I don’t think that firing Elop would scare investors away, on the contrary. Nokia needs change right now and needs to stop the downward spiral that Elop has started.

            I don’t want to see Nokia gone. I used to be confident about Nokia, the brand and products. Now I’m really worried. :-(

          • http://texrat.net Randall

            I think it’s still too soon to say the strategy has failed. But if there’s been no improvement by the end of this year, then I’m right there with you.

            Investors want stability and certainty. Speculators want opportunity. Firing Elop would very likely destroy the last vestige of all three for Nokia. But I do understand the sentiment.

          • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100003406290061 Kevin

            Here are some of my thoughts on Nokia’s Capital Markets Day:-WP7, so they can have an eoycsstem immediately Microsoft’s. And won’t be bothered on creating a new one? Or improve the already created one? What’s this? All these high hopes i have for a meego will never bear a substantial fruit, as it seems. Wp7 as a primary platform, without Qt(as the current news describes) will never make a meego phone as attractive as it sounds a year ago.-WP7 s exclusives bing, xbox live, and office, however, make a nokia phone a better choice for anyone who use these services on PC and xbox consoles.-Whatever happen to symbian though, will still have a big effect on the company. It accounts for 100% percent of their current smartphone customer base. Abandoning the latter is never a good idea.Hmm Nokia has been more complicated than ever. At least, all the confidence that emanates on Elop’s persona, as a leader/CEO, makes me optimistic that they will still pull it through, amidst the chaos. For once though, nokia has a clear destination WP7. It’s way better than any forms of uncertainty.Question: Will they announce a new phone on MWC?

    • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100003406267419 Jacob

      Yup Trolltech’s future (within Nokia) is arulabgy very much in doubt. I’ve seen a few bloggers talk obliquely about this in passing at best. Qt’s days could be numbered at Nokia. Why develop another layer when you don’t need to. It is open source, so risk is more aggravation over its future than anything else

  • http://twitter.com/chris_arrr Chris R

    I just noticed Nokia’s new ad campaign for the Lumia 900, as well as the $99 on-contract pricing. Could either be a last desperate move to gain traction, or it could work.

    Eh, anyway, I’d go for some investment-activism if I had the cap right now. I still have some love for Espoo.

    • http://texrat.net Randall

      It’s amazing how much influence everyday people like us could have if we took charge. ;)

      • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100003406293043 Jhfhmh

        I think Windows phone 7 is better than andoid coz Windows is most popular and most people in the world using Microsoft windows so they are easy to know and easy to use window phone 7. Nokia is smart and smart.. a litle bit Andiod will not free download application more when they have much customer.

  • http://www.nokiainnovation.com THE_TRUTH34

    I bought, and truly believe it’s a great investment at a low risk, I probably lose more money in my 401k daily, yet I trust those investing.At least now I can check daily and have more control of my investment.

  • Mike

    I still early to start buying Nokia stock again. Something is really wrong right now, the Windows strategy is not working at all. The Nokia brand is losing loyal customers daily.

    Read the comments on this blog article on Nokia Conversations.

    http://conversations.nokia.com/2012/04/25/sharp-design-is-pencilled-in-by-dad-judges/

    I have never seen customers and followers of a brand revolting like this before. It will be very difficult to regain customers and regain brand loyalty when you make people angry like this.

    Nokia needs change right now. This downward spiral can’t continue much longer. Windows is not the answer to Nokia’s problems.

  • Jeremy

    Don’t know… I own some Nokia stock and after watching it nose dive over the past year I am not so hopeful even though I would like a nice return on investment. Given where they ate and the continued decisions buying more is a risky proposition….

    1) Windows phone is ok, but it is not taking off like they want. Even though at&t is saying that it is selling well I have not seen a single one on the streets here in Boston, all iPhone and Android here…
    2) horrible management with the burning platforms memo, Imean really???
    3) Manufacturing great looking devices like the n9 and n950 and then refusing to sell them period or only sell them in limited markets. Unbelievable..
    4) Love my n9 paying $700 Just to have the privilege of owning one in the states. hate how this device and the n900 were handled and brought to market (lesser extent with the n900
    5) No differentiation factor with windows phones other than the current n9 Cloned Design and that will get old soon
    6) Cameras are not as good as they used to be, all new phones except the 808 seem to be lacking in this department, where is the old Nokia…
    7) All eggs are now in a very flimsy basket controlled by microsoft, with the demise of symbian and MeeGo Nokia had no smartphone OS as a backup… Yes they still have MeeGo but the ecosystem had no real backing
    8) If there is no turn around this year and elop is fired it will be to late to rescue the share price and it will go down due to the lack of confidence you mention above
    9) No plan b Only a plan a which is of to a very weak start

    Don’t know if its worth the risk, very tough decision…

    • http://texrat.net Randall

      1) You’re seeing exactly what sales figures show. We can’t expect Lumias to suddenly displace iPhones and Androids, at least in appreciable numbers. You’ll continue to see the larger-selling devices out in the wild for some time. That said, I’ve started seeing 900s in the Dallas – Fort Worth area.
      2) no comment *sigh*
      3) no comment *sigh*
      4) I still use my N9 every day. LOVE it… and I’m really not even a phone person.
      5) Yes, I’m surprised and disappointed by that so far.
      6) I think the camera hardware is fine and suspect software issues.
      7) no comment *sigh*
      8) yup
      9) agreed

      BUT– I refuse to believe Microsoft will let Nokia fail or be taken over by a hostile competitor.

      • Jeremy

        Also dismayed by the continued stream of bad news…

        Two downgrades now which means more costly borrowing and Nokia is burning through cash at hand.

        Its unfortunate, I have had Nokias for quite a few years now 770, 5800 n800, n900 and n9. The handling of the N9 and N950 and the lumia push has really put me off the brand.

        News like this too is also frightening from an investor standpoint:

        http://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Nokia+%28NOK%29+Gets+More+Income+from+Apple+%28AAPL%29+than+Smartphones/7379821.html

        Yes it shows that nokia is getting paid for its IP but it shows just how bad the decline in its smartphone business has been from some very very horrible decisions on the part of management.

        • http://texrat.net Randall

          Can’t argue.

      • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100003406276406 Hanfan

        Nokia’s platform (finally): WINDOWS PHONE 7and it’s great desicion!While other mobile phone manufacturers like Samsung and LG will just wait and see for Google’s Android update (since Google has the control) Nokia definitely inks a better deal with Microsoft than any other mobile phone manufacturer Microsoft will include Nokia in the development of the platform. This will ensure the growth of Windows Phone and Nokia’s survival in the market.BATTLEGoogle vs. MicrosoftCompetitors vs. Nokia (although other phone manufacturers also uses Microsoft Windows Phone, they cannot customize it, for Nokia, they can)But one thing is sure, saying farewell to Symbian OS (that for sometime, we loved)